I have a dataset with dates and one variable of sales. The data looks like this:
Dataset
I am using simple LSTM model to make the next prediction from this dataset. The code is:
def create_dataset(dataset, look_back=6):
dataX, dataY = [], []
for i in range(len(dataset)-look_back-1):
a = dataset[i:(i+look_back), 0]
dataX.append(a)
dataY.append(dataset[i+look_back, 0])
return numpy.array(dataX), numpy.array(dataY)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
numpy.random.seed(7)
dataset = new_df.values
dataset = dataset.astype('float32')
scaler = MinMaxScaler(feature_range=(0, 1))
dataset = scaler.fit_transform(dataset)
train_size = int(len(dataset) * 0.67)
test_size = len(dataset) - train_size
train, test = dataset[0:train_size,:], dataset[train_size:len(dataset),:]
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
look_back = 6
trainX, trainY = create_dataset(train, look_back)
testX, testY = create_dataset(test, look_back)
trainX = numpy.reshape(trainX, (trainX.shape[0], 1, trainX.shape[1]))
testX = numpy.reshape(testX, (testX.shape[0], 1, testX.shape[1]))
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
model = Sequential()
model.add(LSTM(2, input_shape=(1, look_back)))
model.add(Dense(1))
model.compile(loss='mean_squared_error', optimizer='adam')
model.fit(trainX, trainY, epochs=60, batch_size=1, verbose=2)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
trainPredict = model.predict(trainX)
testPredict = model.predict(testX)
trainPredict = scaler.inverse_transform(trainPredict)
trainY = scaler.inverse_transform([trainY])
testPredict = scaler.inverse_transform(testPredict)
testY = scaler.inverse_transform([testY])
The model is working well, I am using RMSE as metric and it is in the range of 0.1 to 0.9 which for my project is acceptable (in case anyone has any doubts about how well the model is working).
What would be needed in order to be able to predict 2, 3, 4 or even 5 steps into the future?
Related
I have designed Python code using Keras + TF ) that predicts a self-generated time series (a sinusoid + a linear trend) using a simple LSTM model.
When predicting the sinusoid alone, it works OK.
However, when I add the linear trend line, it gets out of whack and I can't bring it to fit it 'good enough'. The last predicted time steps are always off.
Why is it behaving this way?
# LSTM for international airline passengers problem with memory
import numpy as np
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
from pandas import read_csv
import tensorflow as tf
from keras.models import Sequential
from keras.layers import Dense
from keras.layers import LSTM
from sklearn.preprocessing import MinMaxScaler
from sklearn.metrics import mean_squared_error
# convert an array of values into a dataset matrix
def create_dataset(dataset, look_back=1):
dataX, dataY = [], []
for i in range(len(dataset)-look_back-1):
a = dataset[i:(i+look_back), 0]
dataX.append(a)
dataY.append(dataset[i + look_back, 0])
return np.array(dataX), np.array(dataY)
# fix random seed for reproducibility
tf.random.set_seed(7)
# load the dataset
dataframe = read_csv(r'C:\Users\LENOVO\Documents\Python Scripts\airline-passengers.txt', usecols=[1], engine='python')
dataset = dataframe.values
dataset = dataset.astype('float32')
dataset = (np.sin(np.arange(0,500))*10 + np.arange(0,500)).reshape(-1,1)
# normalize the dataset
scaler = MinMaxScaler(feature_range=(0, 1))
dataset = scaler.fit_transform(dataset)
# split into train and test sets
train_size = int(len(dataset)*0.5)
test_size = len(dataset) - train_size
train, test = dataset[0:train_size,:], dataset[train_size:len(dataset),:]
# reshape into X=t and Y=t+1
look_back = 5
trainX, trainY = create_dataset(train, look_back)
testX, testY = create_dataset(test, look_back)
# reshape input to be [samples, time steps, features]
trainX = np.reshape(trainX, (trainX.shape[0], trainX.shape[1], 1))
testX = np.reshape(testX, (testX.shape[0], testX.shape[1], 1))
# create and fit the LSTM network
batch_size = 1
model = Sequential()
model.add(LSTM(32, batch_input_shape=(batch_size, look_back, 1), stateful=True))
model.add(Dense(1))
model.compile(loss='mean_squared_error', optimizer='adam')
for i in range(100):
model.fit(trainX, trainY, epochs=1, batch_size=batch_size, verbose=2, shuffle=False)
model.reset_states()
# make predictions
trainPredict = model.predict(trainX, batch_size=batch_size)
model.reset_states()
testPredict = model.predict(testX, batch_size=batch_size)
# invert predictions
trainPredict = scaler.inverse_transform(trainPredict)
trainY = scaler.inverse_transform([trainY])
testPredict = scaler.inverse_transform(testPredict)
testY = scaler.inverse_transform([testY])
# calculate root mean squared error
trainScore = np.sqrt(mean_squared_error(trainY[0], trainPredict[:,0]))
print('Train Score: %.2f RMSE' % (trainScore))
testScore = np.sqrt(mean_squared_error(testY[0], testPredict[:,0]))
print('Test Score: %.2f RMSE' % (testScore))
# shift train predictions for plotting
trainPredictPlot = np.empty_like(dataset)
trainPredictPlot[:, :] = np.nan
trainPredictPlot[look_back:len(trainPredict)+look_back, :] = trainPredict
# shift test predictions for plotting
testPredictPlot = np.empty_like(dataset)
testPredictPlot[:, :] = np.nan
testPredictPlot[len(trainPredict)+(look_back*2)+1:len(dataset)-1, :] = testPredict
# plot baseline and predictions
fig, ax = plt.subplots(1, 1, figsize=(15, 5))
plt.plot(scaler.inverse_transform(dataset))
plt.plot(trainPredictPlot, label='train prediction')
plt.plot(testPredictPlot, label='test prediction')
ax.legend(loc="lower left")
plt.show()
# normalize the dataset
scaler = MinMaxScaler(feature_range=(0, 1))
dataset = scaler.fit_transform(df)
train_size = int(len(dataset) * 0.8)
test_size = len(dataset) - train_size
train = dataset[0:train_size,:]
test = dataset[train_size:len(dataset),:]
# convert an array of values into a dataset matrix
def create_dataset(dataset, look_back=1):
dataX, dataY = [], []
for i in range(len(dataset)-look_back-1):
a = dataset[i:(i+look_back), 0]
dataX.append(a)
dataY.append(dataset[i + look_back, 0])
return np.array(dataX), np.array(dataY)
# reshape into X=t and Y=t+1
look_back =50
trainX, trainY = create_dataset(train, look_back)
testX, testY = create_dataset(test, look_back)
print(trainX.shape)
# reshape input to be [samples, time steps, features]
trainX = np.reshape(trainX, (trainX.shape[0], trainX.shape[1], 1))
testX = np.reshape(testX, (testX.shape[0], testX.shape[1], 1))
from keras.layers import Dropout
from keras.layers import Bidirectional
model=Sequential()
model.add(LSTM(50,activation='relu',return_sequences=True,input_shape=(look_back,1)))
model.add(Dense(50))
model.add(LSTM(50, activation='relu', return_sequences=True))
model.add(Dense(50))
model.add(LSTM(50, activation='sigmoid', return_sequences=False))
model.add(Dense(50))
model.add(Dropout(0.2))
model.add(Dense(1))
model.compile(optimizer='adam',loss='mean_squared_error')
Xdata_train=[]
Ydata_train=[]
Xdata_train, Ydata_train = create_dataset(train, look_back)
Xdata_train = np.reshape(Xdata_train, (Xdata_train.shape[0], Xdata_train.shape[1], 1))
#training for all data
history = model.fit(Xdata_train,Ydata_train,batch_size=10,epochs=100,shuffle=True)
Here is the model I used. But the output results are not fit with the data. How to increase the. Predicted values have a low accuracy according to the graph.
What are changes should do fix this issue?
I am using WTI DATA from US website. I am using CNN-LSTM model for prediction and forecasting. My problem is that I can't understand how to forecast 10 days ahead. I have run all of this program with no error. I am using Jupyter notebook in Python. Prediction and graphs are successfully run.
My program:
import numpy
import pandas
import math
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
from numpy import array
from keras.models import Sequential
from keras.layers import LSTM
from keras.layers import Dense
from keras.layers import Flatten
from keras.layers import TimeDistributed
from keras.layers.convolutional import Conv1D
from keras.layers.convolutional import MaxPooling1D
from sklearn.preprocessing import MinMaxScaler
from sklearn.metrics import mean_squared_error
from sklearn.metrics import mean_absolute_error
from sklearn.metrics import mean_absolute_percentage_error
# load the dataset
dataframe = pandas.read_csv('C:/Users/HP/Desktop/python/WTI.csv', usecols=[1], engine='python')
dataset = dataframe.values
dataset = dataset.astype('float32')
# normalize the dataset
scaler = MinMaxScaler(feature_range=(0, 1))
dataset = scaler.fit_transform(dataset)
# split into train and test sets
train_size = int(len(dataset) * 0.67)
test_size = len(dataset) - train_size
train, test = dataset[0:train_size,:], dataset[train_size:len(dataset),:]
print(len(train), len(test))
# convert an array of values into a dataset matrix
def create_dataset(dataset, look_back=1):
dataX, dataY = [], []
for i in range(len(dataset)-look_back-1):
a = dataset[i:(i+look_back), 0]
dataX.append(a)
dataY.append(dataset[i + look_back, 0])
return numpy.array(dataX), numpy.array(dataY)
# reshape into X=t and Y=t+1
look_back = 1
# choose a number of time steps
n_steps = 2
# split into samples
# reshape from [samples, timesteps] into [samples, subsequences, timesteps, features]
trainX, trainY = create_dataset(train, look_back)
testX, testY = create_dataset(test, look_back)
n_features = 1
n_seq = 1
n_steps = 1
# reshape input to be [samples, time steps, features]
trainX = numpy.reshape(trainX, (trainX.shape[0], n_seq, n_steps, trainX.shape[1]))
testX = numpy.reshape(testX, (testX.shape[0], n_seq, n_steps, testX.shape[1]))
# define model
model = Sequential()
model.add(TimeDistributed(Conv1D(filters=64, kernel_size=1, activation='relu'), input_shape=(None,1, look_back)))
model.add(TimeDistributed(Flatten()))
model.add(LSTM(50, activation='relu'))
model.add(Dense(1))
model.compile(optimizer='adam', loss='mse')
model.fit(trainX, trainY, epochs=20, batch_size=1, verbose=2)
# make predictions
trainPredict = model.predict(trainX)
testPredict = model.predict(testX)
# invert predictions
trainPredict = scaler.inverse_transform(trainPredict)
trainY = scaler.inverse_transform([trainY])
testPredict = scaler.inverse_transform(testPredict)
testY = scaler.inverse_transform([testY])
# calculate root mean squared error
trainScore = math.sqrt(mean_squared_error(trainY[0], trainPredict[:,0]))
print('Train Score: %.2f RMSE' % (trainScore))
testScore = math.sqrt(mean_squared_error(testY[0], testPredict[:,0]))
print('Test Score: %.2f RMSE' % (testScore))
MAE = mean_absolute_error(trainY[0], trainPredict[:,0])
print(MAE)
trainMAE = mean_absolute_error(trainY[0], trainPredict[:,0])
print(trainMAE)
testMAE = mean_absolute_error(testY[0], testPredict[:,0])
print(testMAE)
trainmape = mean_absolute_percentage_error(trainY[0], trainPredict[:,0])
print(trainmape)
testmape= mean_absolute_percentage_error(testY[0],testPredict[:,0])
print(testmape)
# shift train predictions for plotting
trainPredictPlot = numpy.empty_like(dataset)
trainPredictPlot[:, :] = numpy.nan
trainPredictPlot[look_back:len(trainPredict)+look_back, :] = trainPredict
# shift test predictions for plotting
testPredictPlot = numpy.empty_like(dataset)
testPredictPlot[:, :] = numpy.nan
testPredictPlot[len(trainPredict)+(look_back*2)+1:len(dataset)-1, :] = testPredict
# plot baseline and predictions
plt.plot(scaler.inverse_transform(dataset))
plt.plot(trainPredictPlot)
plt.plot(testPredictPlot)
plt.show()
I built my model with training data X_train (21 columns) and y_train as follows:
import statsmodels.api as sm
statsmodels_result=logit_model.fit()
print(statsmodels_result.summary2())
statsmodels_predictions = statsmodels_result.predict(X_test)
statsmodels_predictions
I got the following errors:
ValueError: shapes (305772,21) and (22,) not aligned: 21 (dim 1) != 22 (dim 0)
I checked the shape of both X_train and X_test as follows:
print(np.asarray(X_train).shape)
print(np.asarray(X_test).shape)
(715203, 21)
(305772, 21)
I did the above analyses successfully with sk_learn with the same data set.
Could you please help me anything I did wrong?
You could do the same thing using an lstm network. lstm is very good for timeseries problems
lag=4
train, test = data[0:train_size, :], data[train_size:train_size + test_size, :]
# reshape into X=t and Y=t+1
trainX, trainY = create_dataset(train, lag)
testX, testY = create_dataset(test, lag)
# reshape input to be [samples, time steps, features]
trainX = np.reshape(trainX, (trainX.shape[0], 1, trainX.shape[1]))
testX = np.reshape(testX, (testX.shape[0], 1, testX.shape[1]))
trainX = np.reshape(trainX, (trainX.shape[0], 1, trainX.shape[1]))
testX = np.reshape(testX, (testX.shape[0], 1, testX.shape[1]))
# create and fit the LSTM network
model = Sequential()
model.add(LSTM(4, input_shape=(1, lag)))
model.add(Dense(1))
model.compile(loss='mean_squared_error', optimizer='adam')
model.fit(trainX, trainY, epochs=epochs, batch_size=batch_size, verbose=2)
trainPredict = model.predict(trainX)
testPredict = model.predict(testX)
# invert predictions
trainPredict = scaler.inverse_transform(trainPredict)
trainY = scaler.inverse_transform([trainY])
testPredict = scaler.inverse_transform(testPredict)
testY = scaler.inverse_transform([testY])
# calculate root mean squared error
trainScore = math.sqrt(mean_squared_error(trainY[0], trainPredict[:, 0]))
print('Train Score: %.2f RMSE' % (trainScore))
testScore = math.sqrt(mean_squared_error(testY[0], testPredict[:, 0]))
print('Test Score: %.2f RMSE' % (testScore))
# shift train predictions for plotting
trainPredictPlot = np.empty_like(data)
trainPredictPlot[:, :] = np.nan
trainPredictPlot[lag:len(trainPredict) + lag, :] = trainPredict
# shift test predictions for plotting
testPredictPlot = np.empty_like(data)
testPredictPlot[:, :] = np.nan
testPredictPlot[len(trainPredict) + (lag * 2) + 1:len(data) - 1, :] = testPredict
# plot baseline and predictions
plt.plot(scaler.inverse_transform(data))
plt.plot(trainPredictPlot)
plt.plot(testPredictPlot)
plt.show()
I have one column of sequential demand for one item:
I have a LSTM neural network to test the prediction ability of this network and it works for one column. See the code below. But now I want to use several columns for different items and calculate the 'ABSE' for every column.
How can I do this?
This is the code:
import numpy
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
import pandas
import math
from keras.models import Sequential
from keras.layers import Dense
from keras.layers import LSTM
from sklearn.preprocessing import MinMaxScaler
from sklearn.metrics import mean_squared_error
# fix random seed for reproducibility
numpy.random.seed(7)
# load the dataset
dataframe = pandas.read_excel('dataset.xlsx')
dataset = dataframe.values
dataset = dataset.astype('float32')
# normalize the dataset
scaler = MinMaxScaler(feature_range=(0, 1))
dataset = scaler.fit_transform(dataset)
# split into train and test sets
train_size = int(len(dataset) * 0.67)
test_size = len(dataset) - train_size
train, test = dataset[0:train_size,:],
dataset[train_size:len(dataset),:]
def create_dataset(dataset, look_back=1):
dataX, dataY = [], []
for i in range(len(dataset)-look_back-1):
a = dataset[i:(i+look_back), 0]
dataX.append(a)
dataY.append(dataset[i + look_back, 0])
return numpy.array(dataX), numpy.array(dataY)
look_back = 1
trainX, trainY = create_dataset(train, look_back)
testX, testY = create_dataset(test, look_back)
trainX = numpy.reshape(trainX, (trainX.shape[0], 1, trainX.shape[1]))
testX = numpy.reshape(testX, (testX.shape[0], 1, testX.shape[1]))
# create and fit the LSTM network
model = Sequential()
model.add(LSTM(4, input_shape=(1, look_back)))
model.add(Dense(1))
model.compile(loss='mean_squared_error', optimizer='adam')
model.fit(trainX, trainY, epochs=100, batch_size=1, verbose=0)
def ABSE(a,b):
ABSE = abs((b-a)/a)
return numpy.mean(ABSE)
# make predictions
trainPredict = model.predict(trainX)
testPredict = model.predict(testX)
# invert predictions
trainPredict = scaler.inverse_transform(trainPredict)
trainY = scaler.inverse_transform([trainY])
testPredict = scaler.inverse_transform(testPredict)
testY = scaler.inverse_transform([testY])
# calculate root mean squared error
trainScore = ABSE(trainY[0], trainPredict[:,0])
print('Train Score: %.2f ABSE' % (trainScore))
testScore = ABSE(testY[0], testPredict[:,0])
print('Test Score: %.2f ABSE' % (testScore))
If your code works for the first column. Just extract column separately and give it to the model. Like this :
# train your model on first column
...
for name_col in dataframe.columns:
item = dataframe[name_col]
# your preprocessing
...
model.predict(item)
# your evaluation
...