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Calculate standard deviations of estimation errors for ensemble models

I have a model in which I would like to analyse the residuals.Ultimatly, I would like to identify extreme resudials that lie outside of the confidence interval for each day. But am having trouble calculating the pointwise standard deviation of residuals for each model in the bagging regressor.
My sample code is below;
import pandas as pd
import numpy as np
from sklearn.model_selection import train_test_split
from sklearn.svm import SVR
from sklearn.ensemble import BaggingRegressor
# Sample DataFrame
df = pd.DataFrame(np.random.randint(0,200,size=(500, 4)), columns=list('ABCD'))
# Add dates to sample data
base = datetime.datetime.today()
date_list = [base - datetime.timedelta(days=x) for x in range(500)]
df['date'] = date_list
df['date'] = df['date'].astype('str')
# Split dataset into testing and training
train = df[:int(len(df)*0.80)]
test = df[int(len(df)*0.20):]
X_train = train[['B','C','D','date']]
X_test = test[['B','C','D','date']]
y_train = train[['A']]
y_test = test[['A']]
# Function to Encode the data
def encode_and_bind(data_in, feature_to_encode):
dummies = pd.get_dummies(data_in[[feature_to_encode]])
data_out = pd.concat([data_in, dummies], axis=1)
data_out = data_out.drop([feature_to_encode], axis=1)
return(data_out)
for feature in features_to_encode:
X_train_final = encode_and_bind(X_train, 'date')
X_test_final = encode_and_bind(X_test, 'date')
# Define Model
svr_lin = SVR(kernel="linear", C=100, gamma="auto")
regr = BaggingRegressor(base_estimator=svr_lin,random_state=5).fit(X_train_final, y_train.values.ravel())
# Predictions
y_pred = regr.predict(X_test_final)
# Join the predictions back into orignial dataframe
y_test['predict'] = y_pred
# Calculate residuals
y_test['residuals'] = y_test['A'] - y_test['predict']
I found this method online
raw_pred = [x.predict([[0, 0, 0, 0]]) for x in regr.estimators_]
but am not sure of what to use for the x.predict([[0, 0, 0, 0]]) part since I have far more than 4 features.
EDIT:
Building off of #2MuchC0ff33's answer I tried
stdevs = []
for dates in X_test_final.columns[3:]:
test = X_test_final[X_test_final[dates]==1]
raw_pred = [x.predict([test.iloc[0]]) for x in regr.estimators_]
dates= dates
sdev= np.std(raw_pred)
sdev = sdev.astype('str')
stdevs.append(dates + "," + sdev)
it seems to be correct, but I don't know enough about how these calculations are being done to judge if this is working in the way I think it is.

F, thanks for sharing your attempt from my answer.
I am going to try to break everything down and hopefully provide you a solution you need. Apologies in advance if I am repeating some of your code but it is how my brain works haha.
You can group the residuals by date and calculate the standard deviation for each group to calculate the pointwise standard deviation of residuals for each day. Here's how to go about it:
y_test['date'] = y_test['date'].apply(lambda x: x[:10])
grouped = y_test.groupby(['date'])
residual_groups = grouped['residuals']
residual_stds = residual_groups.std()
This will give you the residual standard deviation for each day. For each day, multiply the standard deviation by a constant such as 1.96 (for a 95% confidence interval) and add/subtract it from the mean of the residuals.
residual_means = residual_groups.mean()
CI = 1.96 * residual_stds
upper_bound = residual_means + CI
lower_bound = residual_means - CI
Finally, by comparing the residuals with the lower and upper bounds, you can identify the extreme residuals that lie outside the confidence interval for each day:
extreme_residuals = y_test[(y_test['residuals'] > upper_bound) | (y_test['residuals'] < lower_bound)]
You can extend this method to find the standard deviation for each day.
# Group the test data by the date feature
grouped = X_test_final.groupby(['date'])
stdevs = []
for name, group in grouped:
raw_pred = [x.predict(group) for x in regr.estimators_]
# Calculate the standard deviation of the predictions for each group
sdev = np.std(raw_pred)
stdevs.append((name, sdev))
I think we could replace 0, 0, 0, 0 with x_test_final. Let me know your thoughts on my updated method below:
raw_pred = [x.predict([X_test_final.iloc[0]]) for x in regr.estimators_]

Given an existing distribution, how can I draw samples of size N with std of X?

I have a existing distribution of values and I want to draw samples of size 5, but those 5 samples need to have a std of X within some tolerance. For example, I need 5 samples that have a std of 10 (even though the overall distribution is std=~32).
The example code below somewhat works, but is quite slow for large dataset. It randomly samples the distribution until it finds something close to the target std, then removes those elements so they can't be drawn again.
Is there a smarter way to do this properly and faster? It works ok for some target_std (above 6), but it isn't accurate below 6.
import numpy as np
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
np.random.seed(23)
# Create a distribution
d1 = np.random.normal(95, 5, 200)
d2 = np.random.normal(125, 5, 200)
d3 = np.random.normal(115, 10, 200)
d4 = np.random.normal(70, 10, 100)
d5 = np.random.normal(160, 5, 200)
d6 = np.random.normal(170, 20, 100)
dist = np.concatenate((d1, d2, d3, d4, d5, d6))
print(f"Full distribution: len={len(dist)}, mean={np.mean(dist)}, std={np.std(dist)}")
plt.hist(dist, bins=100)
plt.title("Full Distribution")
plt.show();
batch_size = 5
num_batches = math.ceil(len(dist)/batch_size)
target_std = 10
tolerance = 1
# how many samples to search
num_samples = 100
result = []
# Find samples of batch_size that are closest to target_std
for i in range(num_batches):
samples = []
idxs = np.arange(len(dist))
for j in range(num_samples):
indices = np.random.choice(idxs, size=batch_size, replace=False)
sample = dist[indices]
std = sample.std()
err = abs(std - target_std)
samples.append((sample, indices, std, err, np.mean(sample), max(sample), min(sample)))
if err <= tolerance:
# close enough, stop sampling
break
# sort by smallest err first, then take the first/best result
samples = sorted(samples, key=lambda x: x[3])
best = samples[0]
if i % 100 == 0:
pass
print(f"{i}, std={best[2]}, err={best[3]}, nsamples={num_samples}")
result.append(best)
# remove the data from our source
dist = np.delete(dist, best[1])
df_samples = pd.DataFrame(result, columns=["sample", "indices", "std", "err", "mean", "max", "min"])
df_samples["err"].plot(title="Errors (target_std - batch_std)")
batch_std = df_samples["std"].mean()
batch_err = df_samples["err"].mean()
print(f"RESULT: Target std: {target_std}, Mean batch std: {batch_std}, Mean batch err: {batch_err}")

Since your problem is not restricted to a certain distribution, I use a normally random distribution, but this should work for any distribution. However the run time will depend on the population size.
population = np.random.randn(1000)*32
std = 10.
tol = 1.
n_samples = 5
samples = list(np.random.choice(population, n_samples))
while True:
center = np.mean(samples)
dis = [abs(i-center) for i in samples]
if np.std(samples)>(std+tol):
samples.pop(dis.index(max(dis)))
elif np.std(samples)<(std-tol):
samples.pop(dis.index(min(dis)))
else:
break
samples.append(np.random.choice(population, 1)[0])
Here is how the code works.
First, draw n_samples, probably the std is not in the range you want, so we calculate the mean and absolute distance of each sample to the mean. Then if the std is larger than the desired value plus tolerance, we kick the furthest sample and draw a new one and vice versa.
Note that if this takes too much time to calculate for your data, after kicking the outlier out, you can calculate what should be the range of the next element that should be drawn in the population, instead of randomly taking one. Hopefully this works for you.
DISCLAIMER: This is not a random draw anymore, and you should be aware that the draw is biased and is not representative of the population.

Calculating confidence interval as quantile

I need to find the 95% confidence interval as 2.5 and 97.5 quantiles
boot_mean_diff = []
for i in range(3000):
boot_before = before_proportion
boot_after = after_proportion
boot_mean_diff.append(boot_after.mean()-boot_before.mean())
# Calculating a 95% confidence interval from boot_mean_diff
boot_mean_diff=pd.Series(boot_mean_diff)
#boot_mean_diff1=boot.boot_mean_diff(frac=1,replace=True)
confidence_interval = pd.Series(boot_mean_diff).quantile([0.025,0.975])
confidence_interval
However, I am getting the error below ----
AssertionError: confidence_interval should be calculated as the [0.025, 0.975] quantiles of boot_mean_diff.

I was too facing the same error. Try the below code
# A bootstrap analysis of the reduction of deaths due to handwashing
boot_mean_diff = []
for i in range(3000):
boot_before = before_proportion.sample(frac=1, replace=True)
boot_after = after_proportion.sample(frac=1, replace=True)
boot_mean_diff.append(np.mean(boot_after) - np.mean(boot_before))
# Calculating a 95% confidence interval from boot_mean_diff
confidence_interval = pd.Series(boot_mean_diff).quantile([0.025, 0.975])
print(confidence_interval)
I have used import numpy as np, thus using np.mean()
you can directly try with boot_after.mean()

Finding anomalous values from sinusoidal data

How can I find anomalous values from following data. I am simulating a sinusoidal pattern. While I can plot the data and spot any anomalies or noise in data, but how can I do it without plotting the data. I am looking for simple approaches other than Machine learning methods.
import random
import numpy as np
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
N = 10 # Set signal sample length
t1 = -np.pi # Simulation begins at t1
t2 = np.pi; # Simulation ends at t2
in_array = np.linspace(t1, t2, N)
print("in_array : ", in_array)
out_array = np.sin(in_array)
plt.plot(in_array, out_array, color = 'red', marker = "o") ; plt.title("numpy.sin()")
Inject random noise
noise_input = random.uniform(-.5, .5); print("Noise : ",noise_input)
in_array[random.randint(0,len(in_array)-1)] = noise_input
print(in_array)
plt.plot(in_array, out_array, color = 'red', marker = "o") ; plt.title("numpy.sin()")
Data with noise

I've thought of the following approach to your problem, since you have only some values that are anomalous in the time vector, it means that the rest of the values have a regular progression, which means that if we gather all the data points in the vector under clusters and calculate the average step for the biggest cluster (which is essentially the pool of values that represent the real deal), then we can use that average to do a triad detection, in a given threshold, over the vector and detect which of the elements are anomalous.
For this we need two functions: calculate_average_step which will calculate that average for the biggest cluster of close values, and then we need detect_anomalous_values which will yield the indexes of the anomalous values in our vector, based on that average calculated earlier.
After we detected the anomalous values, we can go ahead and replace them with an estimated value, which we can determine from our average step value and by using the adjacent points in the vector.
import random
import numpy as np
import pandas as pd
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
def calculate_average_step(array, threshold=5):
"""
Determine the average step by doing a weighted average based on clustering of averages.
array: our array
threshold: the +/- offset for grouping clusters. Aplicable on all elements in the array.
"""
# determine all the steps
steps = []
for i in range(0, len(array) - 1):
steps.append(abs(array[i] - array[i+1]))
# determine the steps clusters
clusters = []
skip_indexes = []
cluster_index = 0
for i in range(len(steps)):
if i in skip_indexes:
continue
# determine the cluster band (based on threshold)
cluster_lower = steps[i] - (steps[i]/100) * threshold
cluster_upper = steps[i] + (steps[i]/100) * threshold
# create the new cluster
clusters.append([])
clusters[cluster_index].append(steps[i])
# try to match elements from the rest of the array
for j in range(i + 1, len(steps)):
if not (cluster_lower <= steps[j] <= cluster_upper):
continue
clusters[cluster_index].append(steps[j])
skip_indexes.append(j)
cluster_index += 1 # increment the cluster id
clusters = sorted(clusters, key=lambda x: len(x), reverse=True)
biggest_cluster = clusters[0] if len(clusters) > 0 else None
if biggest_cluster is None:
return None
return sum(biggest_cluster) / len(biggest_cluster) # return our most common average
def detect_anomalous_values(array, regular_step, threshold=5):
"""
Will scan every triad (3 points) in the array to detect anomalies.
array: the array to iterate over.
regular_step: the step around which we form the upper/lower band for filtering
treshold: +/- variation between the steps of the first and median element and median and third element.
"""
assert(len(array) >= 3) # must have at least 3 elements
anomalous_indexes = []
step_lower = regular_step - (regular_step / 100) * threshold
step_upper = regular_step + (regular_step / 100) * threshold
# detection will be forward from i (hence 3 elements must be available for the d)
for i in range(0, len(array) - 2):
a = array[i]
b = array[i+1]
c = array[i+2]
first_step = abs(a-b)
second_step = abs(b-c)
first_belonging = step_lower <= first_step <= step_upper
second_belonging = step_lower <= second_step <= step_upper
# detect that both steps are alright
if first_belonging and second_belonging:
continue # all is good here, nothing to do
# detect if the first point in the triad is bad
if not first_belonging and second_belonging:
anomalous_indexes.append(i)
# detect the last point in the triad is bad
if first_belonging and not second_belonging:
anomalous_indexes.append(i+2)
# detect the mid point in triad is bad (or everything is bad)
if not first_belonging and not second_belonging:
anomalous_indexes.append(i+1)
# we won't add here the others because they will be detected by
# the rest of the triad scans
return sorted(set(anomalous_indexes)) # return unique indexes
if __name__ == "__main__":
N = 10 # Set signal sample length
t1 = -np.pi # Simulation begins at t1
t2 = np.pi; # Simulation ends at t2
in_array = np.linspace(t1, t2, N)
# add some noise
noise_input = random.uniform(-.5, .5);
in_array[random.randint(0, len(in_array)-1)] = noise_input
noisy_out_array = np.sin(in_array)
# display noisy sin
plt.figure()
plt.plot(in_array, noisy_out_array, color = 'red', marker = "o");
plt.title("noisy numpy.sin()")
# detect anomalous values
average_step = calculate_average_step(in_array)
anomalous_indexes = detect_anomalous_values(in_array, average_step)
# replace anomalous points with an estimated value based on our calculated average
for anomalous in anomalous_indexes:
# try forward extrapolation
try:
in_array[anomalous] = in_array[anomalous-1] + average_step
# else try backwward extrapolation
except IndexError:
in_array[anomalous] = in_array[anomalous+1] - average_step
# generate sine wave
out_array = np.sin(in_array)
plt.figure()
plt.plot(in_array, out_array, color = 'green', marker = "o");
plt.title("cleaned numpy.sin()")
plt.show()
Noisy sine:
Cleaned sine:

Your problem relies in the time vector (which is of 1 dimension). You will need to apply some sort of filter on that vector.
First thing that came to mind was medfilt (median filter) from scipy and it looks something like this:
from scipy.signal import medfilt
l1 = [0, 10, 20, 30, 2, 50, 70, 15, 90, 100]
l2 = medfilt(l1)
print(l2)
the output of this will be:
[ 0. 10. 20. 20. 30. 50. 50. 70. 90. 90.]
the problem with this filter though is that if we apply some noise values to the edges of the vector like [200, 0, 10, 20, 30, 2, 50, 70, 15, 90, 100, -50] then the output would be something like [ 0. 10. 10. 20. 20. 30. 50. 50. 70. 90. 90. 0.] and obviously this is not ok for the sine plot since it will produce the same artifacts for the sine values array.
A better approach to this problem is to treat the time vector as an y output and it's index values as the x input and do a linear regression on the "time linear function", not the quotes, it just means we're faking the 2 dimensional model by applying a fake X vector. The code implies the use of scipy's linregress (linear regression) function:
from scipy.stats import linregress
l1 = [5, 0, 10, 20, 30, -20, 50, 70, 15, 90, 100]
l1_x = range(0, len(l1))
slope, intercept, r_val, p_val, std_err = linregress(l1_x, l1)
l1 = intercept + slope * l1_x
print(l1)
whose output will be:
[-10.45454545 -1.63636364 7.18181818 16. 24.81818182
33.63636364 42.45454545 51.27272727 60.09090909 68.90909091
77.72727273]
Now let's apply this to your time vector.
import random
import numpy as np
import pandas as pd
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
from scipy.stats import linregress
N = 20
# N = 10 # Set signal sample length
t1 = -np.pi # Simulation begins at t1
t2 = np.pi; # Simulation ends at t2
in_array = np.linspace(t1, t2, N)
# add some noise
noise_input = random.uniform(-.5, .5);
in_array[random.randint(0, len(in_array)-1)] = noise_input
# apply filter on time array
in_array_x = range(0, len(in_array))
slope, intercept, r_val, p_val, std_err = linregress(in_array_x, in_array)
in_array = intercept + slope * in_array_x
# generate sine wave
out_array = np.sin(in_array)
print("OUT ARRAY")
print(out_array)
plt.plot(in_array, out_array, color = 'red', marker = "o") ; plt.title("numpy.sin()")
plt.show()
the output will be:
the resulting signal will be an approximation of the original, as it is with any form of extrapolation/interpolation/regression filtering.

how to isolate data that are 2 and 3 sigma deviated from mean and then mark them in a plot in python?

I am reading from a dataset which looks like the following when plotted in matplotlib and then taken the best fit curve using linear regression.
The sample of data looks like following:
# ID X Y px py pz M R
1.04826492772e-05 1.04828050287e-05 1.048233088e-05 0.000107002791008 0.000106552433081 0.000108704469007 387.02 4.81947797625e+13
1.87380963036e-05 1.87370588085e-05 1.87372620448e-05 0.000121616280029 0.000151924707761 0.00012371156585 428.77 6.54636174067e+13
3.95579877816e-05 3.95603773653e-05 3.95610756809e-05 0.000163470663023 0.000265203868883 0.000228031803626 470.74 8.66961875758e+13
My code looks the following:
# Regression Function
def regress(x, y):
#Return a tuple of predicted y values and parameters for linear regression.
p = sp.stats.linregress(x, y)
b1, b0, r, p_val, stderr = p
y_pred = sp.polyval([b1, b0], x)
return y_pred, p
# plotting z
xz, yz = M, Y_z # data, non-transformed
y_pred, _ = regress(xz, np.log(yz)) # change here # transformed input
plt.semilogy(xz, yz, marker='o',color ='b', markersize=4,linestyle='None', label="l.o.s within R500")
plt.semilogy(xz, np.exp(y_pred), "b", label = 'best fit') # transformed output
However I can see a lot upward scatter in the data and the best fit curve is affected by those. So first I want to isolate the data points which are 2 and 3 sigma away from my mean data, and mark them with circle around them.
Then take the best fit curve considering only the points which fall within 1 sigma of my mean data
Is there a good function in python which can do that for me?
Also in addition to that may I also isolate the data from my actual dataset, like if the third row in the sample input represents 2 sigma deviation may I have that row as an output too to save later and investigate more?
Your help is most appreciated.

Here's some code that goes through the data in a given number of windows, calculates statistics in said windows, and separates data in well- and misbehaved lists.
Hope this helps.
from scipy import stats
from scipy import polyval
import numpy as np
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
num_data = 10000
fake_data_x = np.sort(12.8+np.random.random(num_data))
fake_data_y = np.exp(fake_data_x) + np.random.normal(0,scale=50000,size=num_data)
# Regression Function
def regress(x, y):
#Return a tuple of predicted y values and parameters for linear regression.
p = stats.linregress(x, y)
b1, b0, r, p_val, stderr = p
y_pred = polyval([b1, b0], x)
return y_pred, p
# plotting z
xz, yz = fake_data_x, fake_data_y # data, non-transformed
y_pred, _ = regress(xz, np.log(yz)) # change here # transformed input
plt.figure()
plt.semilogy(xz, yz, marker='o',color ='b', markersize=4,linestyle='None', label="l.o.s within R500")
plt.semilogy(xz, np.exp(y_pred), "b", label = 'best fit') # transformed output
plt.show()
num_bin_intervals = 10 # approx number of averaging windows
window_boundaries = np.linspace(min(fake_data_x),max(fake_data_x),int(len(fake_data_x)/num_bin_intervals)) # window boundaries
y_good = [] # list to collect the "well-behaved" y-axis data
x_good = [] # list to collect the "well-behaved" x-axis data
y_outlier = []
x_outlier = []
for i in range(len(window_boundaries)-1):
# create a boolean mask to select the data within the averaging window
window_indices = (fake_data_x<=window_boundaries[i+1]) & (fake_data_x>window_boundaries[i])
# separate the pieces of data in the window
fake_data_x_slice = fake_data_x[window_indices]
fake_data_y_slice = fake_data_y[window_indices]
# calculate the mean y_value in the window
y_mean = np.mean(fake_data_y_slice)
y_std = np.std(fake_data_y_slice)
# choose and select the outliers
y_outliers = fake_data_y_slice[np.abs(fake_data_y_slice-y_mean)>=2*y_std]
x_outliers = fake_data_x_slice[np.abs(fake_data_y_slice-y_mean)>=2*y_std]
# choose and select the good ones
y_goodies = fake_data_y_slice[np.abs(fake_data_y_slice-y_mean)<2*y_std]
x_goodies = fake_data_x_slice[np.abs(fake_data_y_slice-y_mean)<2*y_std]
# extend the lists with all the good and the bad
y_good.extend(list(y_goodies))
y_outlier.extend(list(y_outliers))
x_good.extend(list(x_goodies))
x_outlier.extend(list(x_outliers))
plt.figure()
plt.semilogy(x_good,y_good,'o')
plt.semilogy(x_outlier,y_outlier,'r*')
plt.show()