I would like to understand more the machine learning technics, I have read and watch a bunch of things on Python, sklearn and supervised feed forward net but I am still struggling to see how I can apply all this to my project and where to start with. Maybe it is a little bit too ambitious yet.
I have the following algorithm which generates nice patterns as binary format inputs on csv file. The outputs and the goal is to predict the next row.
The simplify logic of this algorithm is the prediction of the next line (top line being the most recent one) would be 0,0,1,1,1,0 and then the next after that would become either 0,0,0,1,1,0 or come back to its previous step 0,1,1,1,0. However you can see the model is slightly more complex and noisy this is why I would like to introduce some machine learnings here. I am aware to have a reliable prediction I will need to introduce other relevant inputs afterwards.
Would someone please help me to get started and stand on my feet here?
I don't like throwing this here and not being able to provide a single piece of code but I am slightly confused to where to start.
Should I pass as input each (line-1) as vectors and then the associated output would be the top line? Should I build the array manually with all my dataset?
I guess I have to use the sigmoid function and python seems the most common way to answer this but for the synapses (or weights), I understand I need also to provide a constant, should this be 1?
Finally assuming you want this to run continuously what would be required?
Please would you share with me readings or simplification tasks that could help me to increase my knowledge with all this.
Many thanks.
Related
I'm working on a model that would predict an exam schedule for a given course and term. My input would be the term and the course name, and the output would be the date. I'm currently done with the data cleaning and preprocessing step, however, I can't wrap my head around a way to make a model whose input is two strings and the output is two numbers (the day and month of exam). One approach that I thought of would be encoding my course names, and writing the term as a binary list. I.E input: encoded(course), [0,0,1] output: day, month. and then feeding to a regression model.
I hope someone who's more experienced could tell me a better approach.
Before I start answering your question:
/rant
I know this sounds dumb and doesn't really help your question, but why are you using Neural Networks for this?!
To me, this seems like the classical case of "everybody uses ML/AI in their area, so now I have to, too!" (which is completely not true) /rant over
For string-like inputs, there exist several methods to encode these; choosing the right one might depend on your specific task. As you have a very "simple" (and predictable) input - i.e., you know in advance that there might not be any new/unseen course titles during testing/inference, or you do not need contextual/semantic information, you can resort to something like scikit-learn's LabelEncoder, which will turn it into different classes.
Alternatively, you could also throw a more heavy-weight encoding structure at the problem, that embeds the values in a matrix. Most DL frameworks offer some form of internal function for this, which basically requires you to pass an unique index for your input data, and actively learns some k-dimensional embedding vector for this. Intuitively, these embeddings correspond to a semantic or topical direction. If you have for example 3-dimensional embeddings, the first one could represent "social sciences course", the other one "technical courses", and the third for "seminar".
Of course, this is just a simplification of it, but helps imagining how it works.
For the output, predicting a specific date is actually a really good question. As I have personally never predicted dates myself, I can only recommend tips by other users. A nice answer on dates (as input) is given here.
If you can sacrifice a little bit of accuracy in the result, predicting the calendar week in which the exam is happening might be a good idea. Otherwise, you could simply treat it as two regressed values, but you might end up with invalid combinations (i.e. "negative days/months", or something like "31st February".
Depending on how much training data of high quality you have, results might vary quite heavily. Lastly, I would again recommend you to overthink whether you actually need a neural network for this task, or whether there are simpler metrics to do this.
Create dummy variables or use RandomForest. They accept text input and numerical output.
I found an implementation for BEGAN using CNTK.
(https://github.com/2wins/BEGAN-cntk)
This uses MNIST dataset instead of Celeb A which was used in the original paper.
However, I don't understand the result images, which looks quite deterministic:
Output images of the trained generator (iter: 30000)
For different noise samples, I expect different outputs come from it. But it doesn't do that regardless of any hyper-parameters. Which part of the code does make the problem?
Please explain it.
Use higher gamma (for example gamma=1 or 1.3, more than 1 actually). Then it will improve certainly but would not make it perfect. Take enough iterations like 200k.
Please look at the paper carefully. It says the parameter gamma controls diversity.
One of the results that I obtained is .
I'm also looking for the best parameters and best results, but haven't yet.
Looks like your model might be getting stuck in a particular mode. One idea would be to add an additional condition on the class labels. Conditional GANs have been proposed to overcome such limitations.
http://www.foldl.me/uploads/2015/conditional-gans-face-generation/paper.pdf
This is an idea that would be worth exploring.
I have a bunch of contact data listing what members were contacted by what offer, which summarizes something like this:
To make sense of it (and to make it more scalable) I was considering creating dummy variables for each offer and then using a logistic model to see how different offers impact performance:
Before I embark too far on this journey I wanted to get some input if this is a sensible way to approach this (I have started playing around but and got a model output, but haven't dug into it yet). Someone suggested I use linear regression instead, but I'm not really sure about the approach for that in this case.
What I'm hoping to get are coefficients that are interpretable - so I can see that Mailing the 50% off offer in the 3d mailing is not as impactful as the $25 giftcard etc, and then do this at scale (lots of mailings with lots of different offers) to draw some conclusions about the impact of timing of different offers.
My concern is that I will end up with a fairly sparse matrix where only some combinations of the many possible are respresented, and what problems may arise from this. I've taken some online courses in ML but am new to it, and this is one of my first chances to work directly with it so I'm hoping I could create something useful out of this. I have access to lots and lots of data, it's just a matter of getting something basic out that can show some value. Maybe there's already some work on this or even some kind of library I can use?
Thanks for any help!
If your target variable is binary (1 or 0) as in the second chart, then a classification model is appropriate. Logistic Regression is a good first option, you could also a tree-based model like a decision tree classifier or a random forest.
Creating dummy variables is a good move; you could also convert the discounts to numerical values if you want to keep them in a single column, however this may not work so well for a linear model like logistic regression as the correlation will probably not be linear.
If you wanted to model the first chart directly you could use a linear regressions for predicting the conversion rate, I'm not sure about the difference is in doing this, it's actually something I've been wondering about for a while, you've motivated me to post a question on stats.stackexchange.com
I am working on Python 2.7. I want to create nomograms based on the data of various variables in order to predict one variable. I am looking into and have installed PyNomo package.
However, the from the documentation here and here and the examples, it seems that nomograms can only be made when you have equation(s) relating these variables, and not from the data. For example, examples here show how to use equations to create nomograms. What I want, is to create a nomogram from the data and use that to predict things. How do I do that? In other words, how do I make the nomograph take data as input and not the function as input? Is it even possible?
Any input would be helpful. If PyNomo cannot do it, please suggest some other package (in any language). For example, I am trying function nomogram from package rms in R, but not having luck with figuring out how to properly use it. I have asked a separate question for that here.
The term "nomogram" has become somewhat confused of late as it now refers to two entirely different things.
A classic nomogram performs a full calculation - you mark two scales, draw a straight line across the marks and read your answer from a third scale. This is the type of nomogram that pynomo produces, and as you correctly say, you need a formula. As mentioned above, producing nomograms like this is definitely a two-step process.
The other use of the term (very popular, recently) is to refer to regression nomograms. These are graphical depictions of regression models (usually logistic regression models). For these, a group of parallel predictor variables are depicted with a common scale on the bottom; for each predictor you read the 'score' from the scale and add these up. These types of nomograms have become very popular in the last few years, and thats what the RMS package will draft. I haven't used this but my understanding is that it works directly from the data.
Hope this is of some use! :-)
My Question is as follows:
I know a little bit about ML in Python (using NLTK), and it works ok so far. I can get predictions given certain features. But I want to know, is there a way, to display the best features to achieve a label? I mean the direct opposite of what I've been doing so far (put in all circumstances, and get a label for that)
I try to make my question clear via an example:
Let's say I have a database with Soccer games.
The Labels are e.g. 'Win', 'Loss', 'Draw'.
The Features are e.g. 'Windspeed', 'Rain or not', 'Daytime', 'Fouls committed' etc.
Now I want to know: Under which circumstances will a Team achieve a Win, Loss or Draw? Basically I want to get back something like this:
Best conditions for Win: Windspeed=0, No Rain, Afternoon, Fouls=0 etc
Best conditions for Loss: ...
Is there a way to achieve this?
My paint skills aren't the best!
All I know is theory, so well you'll have to look for the code..
If you have only 1 case(The best for "x" situations) the diagram becomes something like (It won't be 2-D, but something like this):
Green (Win), Orange(Draw), Red(Lose)
Now if you want to predict whether the team wins, loses or draws, you have (at least) 2 models to classify:
Linear Regression, the separator is the Perpendicular bisector of the line joining the 2 points:
K-nearest-neighbours: it is done just by calculating the distance from all the points, and classifying the point as the same as the closest..
So, for example, if you have a new data, and have to classify it, here's how:
We have a new point, with certain attributes..
We classify it by seeing/calculating which side of the line the point comes in (or seeing how far it is from our benchmark situations...
Note: You will have to give some weightage to each factor, for more accuracy..
You could compute the representativeness of each feature to separate the classes via feature weighting. The most common method for feature selection (and therefore feature weighting) in Text Classification is chi^2. This measure will tell you which features are better. Based on this information you can analyse the specific values that are best for every case. I hope this helps.
Regards,
Not sure if you have to do this in python, but if not, I would suggest Weka. If you're unfamiliar with it, here's a link to a set of tutorials: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gd5HwYYOz2U
Basically, you'd just need to write a program to extract your features and labels and then output a .arff file. Once you've generated a .arff file, you can feed this to Weka and run myriad different classifiers on it to figure out what model best fits your data. If necessary, you can then program this model to operate on your data. Weka has plenty of ways to analyze your results and to graphically display said results. It's truly amazing.