regression on trend + seasonal using python statsmodels - python

I have a question regarding regression in python. To make a long story short, I need to find a model of form yt = mt + st where mt and st are trends and seasonal component respectively. In my earlier analysis, I have found that a good model for mt is a quadratic trend of type mt = a0 + a1*t + a2*t^2
through my regression analysis. Now, when I want to add the seasonal component, this is where I am having the hardest time. Now, I approached this two ways...one is through R programming where I am calling R objects into python and the other through python solely. Now, following the example in my book, I did the folliwng using R:
%load_ext rmagic
import rpy2.robjects as R
import pandas.rpy.common as com
from rpy2.robjects.packages import importr
stats = importr('stats')
r_df = com.convert_to_r_dataframe(pd.DataFrame(data.logTotal))
%Rpush r_df
%R ss = as.factor(rep(1:12,length(r_df$logTotal)/12))
%R tt = 1:length(r_df$logTotal)
%R tt2 = cbind(tt,tt^2)
%R ts_model = lm(r_df$logTotal ~ tt2+ss-1)
%R print(summary(ts_model))
I get the right regression coefficients. But, if i do the same thing in python, this is where I am getting problem replicating it.
import statsmodels.formula.api as smf
ss_temp= pd.Categorical.from_array(np.repeat(np.arange(1,13),len(data.logTotal)/12))
dtemp = np.column_stack((t,t**2,data.logTotal))
dtemp = pd.DataFrame(dtemp,columns=['t','tsqr','logTotal'])
dtemp['ss'] = sstemp
res_result = smf.ols(formula='logTotal ~ t+tsqr + C(ss) -1',data=dtemp).fit()
res_result.params
What am i doing wrong here? I first get an error saying 'data type not found' which points to the res_result formula. So, then I tried changing ss_temp to a Series. Then, the above statements worked. However, my parameters were completely off when compared to the R output. I have been spending a day on this with no avail. Can someone please help me or guide me as to do or is there an python equivalent to as.factor in R? I assumed that was categorical in pandas.
Thanks
If the above is too hard, its fine. I still have the residual model from my regression in R. But, any ideas how to convert this to a python equivalent to what statsmodels interprets as a res from regression? thanks again

Related

rpy2 in python with `R.feols(lnSO2 ~ tp, data = df) ` , I get the SyntaxError located on `~`

I am a student in Economics with little experience in R. I am trying to use python to call fixest::feols. But get some error, can anyone do me a favor?
Here is the code of my project, which is a basic DID model.
By the way, this is my first time to ask question in stack overflow, if you need more details, I can fix it.
import pandas as pd
from rpy2 import robjects as ro
from rpy2.robjects.packages import importr
from rpy2.robjects import pandas2ri
pandas2ri.activate()
from rpy2.robjects.conversion import localconverter
R = ro.r
base = importr('base')
# this is the package which contains feols function .
fixest = importr('fixest')
df = pd.read_stata(r'mydata.dta')
df = df[['lnSO2', 'tp', "year", 'firm_ID',"pac" ]].iloc[:100, :]
print(R.summary(df))
print(R.summary(R.lm("lnSO2~ tp", data=df)))
# error occurred. the right complete code in R is `feols(lnSO2 ~ 1 + tp |year+firm_ID, data=df, cluster=~pac) `
print(R.feols(lnSO2~ tp| year+firm_ID, data=df))
The error is showed as below:
File "<ipython-input-19-02d37bf05a02>", line 1
print(R.feols(lnSO2~ tp| year+firm_ID, data=df))
^
SyntaxError: invalid syntax
I have tried print(R.feols("lnSO2~ tp| year+firm_ID", data=df)) but this can't get the right answer too and returned the same error tips in R: Error in feols("lnSO2 ~ 1 + tp |year+firm_ID", data = df, cluster = ~pac) : The argument 'fml' must be a two-sided formula. Problem: it is not a formula, not a data.frame nor a matrix (instead it is a vector).
Can anyone help me to get the same results? Or since LinearModels can only contain two fixed effects, anyone can give me an optional choice to handle the fixed effects model regression in python with 3 or more fixed effects?
Thanks and best wishes for you!
Try to creating Formula objects:
Import the class:
from rpy2.robjects import Formula
Then do the following:
R.lm(formula=Formula("lnSO2~ tp"), data=df)
R.feols(fml=Formula("lnSO2~ tp| year+firm_ID"), data=df)

patsy dmatrices raising "AssertionError"

Noob trying my first Negative Binomial Regression. iPython on Google's Colab. I load the dataset as a pandas df. The features (and Target) in the formula below all appear in the df (which I named "dataset").
I also bring in
from patsy import dmatrices
import statsmodels.api as sm
however, when I
formula = """Target ~ MeanAge + %White + %HHsNotWater + HHsIneq*10 + %NotSaLang + %male + %Informal + COGTACatG2B09 + %Poor + AGRating """
data = dataset
response, predictors = dmatrices(formula, data, return_type='dataframe')
nb_results = sm.GLM(response, predictors, family=sm.families.NegativeBinomial(alpha=0.15)).fit()
print(nb_results.summary())
I simply get AssertionError:, and an arrow to line four (the one starting "response"). I have no idea how to remedy this, and cannot find similar problems on this site - any sage guidance, please?
...the mistake I made was in the formula line. Python sees the "%" and "*" in my feature names as very different instructions altogether.
So changing each feature from HHsHotWater to Q('HHsNotWater') etc, made all the difference. #njsmith at the pydata/patsy issues github set me straight.

Python: Random intercept model (have to replicate R code)

I'm trying to replicate code from R that estimates a random intercept model. The R code is:
fit=lmer(resid~-1+(1|groupid),data=df)
I'm using the lmer command of the lme4 package to estimate random intercepts for the variable resid for observations in different groups (defined by groupid). There is no 'fixed effects' part, therefore no variable before the (1|groupid). Moreover, I do not want a constant estimated so that I get an intercept for each group.
Not sure how to do similar estimation in Python. I tried something like:
import pandas as pd
import numpy as np
import statsmodels.formula.api as smf
np.random.seed(12345)
df = pd.DataFrame(np.random.randn(25, 4), columns=list('ABCD'))
df['groupid'] = [1,1,1,1,1,2,2,2,2,2,3,3,3,3,3,4,4,4,4,4,5,5,5,5,5]
df['groupid'] = df['groupid'].astype('category')
###Random intercepts models
md = smf.mixedlm('A~B-1',data=df,groups=df['groupid'])
mdf = md.fit()
print(mdf.random_effects)
A is resid from the earlier example, while groupid is the same.
1) I am not sure whether the mdf.random_effects are the random intercepts I am looking for
2) I cannot remove the variable B, which I understand is the fixed effects part. If I try:
md = smf.mixedlm('A~-1',data=df,groups=df['groupid'])
I get an error that "Arrays cannot be empty".
Just trying to estimate the exact same model as in the R code. Any advice will be appreciated.

Python statsmodels logit wald test input

I have fitted a logisitic regression model to some data, everything is working great. I need to calculate the wald statistic which is a function of the model result.
My problem is that I do not understand, from the documentation, what the wald test requires as input? Specifically what is the R matrix and how is it generated?
I tried simply inputting the data I used to train and test the model as the R matrix, but I do not think this is correct. The documentation suggest examining the examples however none give an example of this test. I also asked the same question on crossvalidated but got shot down.
Kind regards
http://statsmodels.sourceforge.net/0.6.0/generated/statsmodels.discrete.discrete_model.LogitResults.wald_test.html#statsmodels.discrete.discrete_model.LogitResults.wald_test
The Wald test is used to test if a predictor is significant or not, of the form:
W = (beta_hat - beta_0) / SE(beta_hat) ~ N(0,1)
So somehow you'll want to input the predictors into the test. Judging from the example of the t.test and f.test, it may be simpler to input a string or tuple to indicate what you are testing.
Here is their example using a string for the f.test:
from statsmodels.datasets import longley
from statsmodels.formula.api import ols
dta = longley.load_pandas().data
formula = 'TOTEMP ~ GNPDEFL + GNP + UNEMP + ARMED + POP + YEAR'
results = ols(formula, dta).fit()
hypotheses = '(GNPDEFL = GNP), (UNEMP = 2), (YEAR/1829 = 1)'
f_test = results.f_test(hypotheses)
print(f_test)
And here is their example using a tuple:
import numpy as np
import statsmodels.api as sm
data = sm.datasets.longley.load()
data.exog = sm.add_constant(data.exog)
results = sm.OLS(data.endog, data.exog).fit()
r = np.zeros_like(results.params)
r[5:] = [1,-1]
T_test = results.t_test(r)
If you're still struggling getting the wald test to work, include your code and I can try to help make it work.

Using weightings in a Poisson model using Statsmodels module

I'm trying to convert the following code from R to Python using the Statsmodels module:
model <- glm(goals ~ att + def + home - (1), data=df, family=poisson, weights=weight)
I've got a similar dataframe (named df) using pandas, and currently have the following line in Python (version 3.4 if it makes a difference):
model = sm.Poisson.from_formula("goals ~ att + def + home - 1", df).fit()
Or, using GLM:
smf.glm("goals ~ att + def + home - 1", df, family=sm.families.Poisson()).fit()
However, I can't get the weighting terms to work. Each record in the dataframe has a date, and I want more recent records to be more valuable for fitting the model than older ones. I've not seen an example of it being used, but surely if it can be done in R, it can be done on Statsmodels... right?
freq_weights is now supported on GLM Poisson, but unfortunately not on sm.Poisson
To use it, pass freq_weights when creating the GLM:
import statsmodels.api as sm
import statsmodels.formula.api as smf
formula = "goals ~ att + def + home - 1"
smf.glm(formula, df, family=sm.families.Poisson(), freq_weights=df['freq_weight']).fit()
I've encountered the same issue.
there is a workaround that should lead to same results. add the weight in logarithm scale (np.log(weight)) you need as one of the explanatory variables with beta equal to 1 (offset option).
I can see there is an option for the exposure which doing the same as I explained above.
There are two solutions for setting up weights for Poisson regression. The first is to use freq_weigths in the GLM function as mentioned by MarkWPiper. The second is to just go with Poisson regression and pass the weights to exposure. As documented here: "Log(exposure) is added to the linear prediction with coefficient equal to 1." This does the same mathematical trick as mentioned by Yaron, although the parameter has a different original meaning. A sample code is as follows:
import statsmodels.api as sm
# or: from statsmodels.discrete.discrete_model import Poisson
fitted = sm.Poisson.from_formula("goals ~ att + def + home - 1", data=df, exposure=df['weight']).fit()

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