I am trying to generate two (1D) points x1, x2 chosen randomly, and independently, from the uniform distribution U(-1,1) such that the euclidean distance between them is less than a certain value, dist. Here is one solution, but I'm looking for something more efficient:
def point_pair(low_=-1, hight_=1, dist = 0.001):
while(1):
x = np.random.uniform(low=low_, high=hight_)
y = np.random.uniform(low=low_, high=hight_)
length = np.linalg.norm(x-y)
if length <= dist:
return x,y
return 0,0
To generate two scalars whose magnitudes are close to each other:
import numpy as np
def point_pair(low, high, dist):
delta = np.random.uniform(-dist, dist)
a = np.random.uniform(low + dist, high - dist)
b = np.random.choice((-1, 1)) * a + delta
return a, b
Your scalar a is generated almost in the same way, but where the bounds are not [-1, 1) but [-1 + dist, 1 - dist). For b, you generate a new scalar which is uniformly distributed from -dist to +dist. This represents the bounds on the maximum distance away from a in either direction on the real line that you allow. Then b is simply k*a + delta, where again, delta is any value between -dist and +dist, and k is either -1 or 1.
This will ensure that both a and b are in [-1, 1) and that their magnitudes are similar, or ||a| - |b|| <= dist.
Note
The np.random.uniform(low, high) function always returns values in [low, high) so if you want to also include your upper bound, you'll need to use a different method.
use polar coordinates, your random numbers are angle and distance.
I do have a function, for example , but this can be something else as well, like a quadratic or logarithmic function. I am only interested in the domain of . The parameters of the function (a and k in this case) are known as well.
My goal is to fit a continuous piece-wise function to this, which contains alternating segments of linear functions (i.e. sloped straight segments, each with intercept of 0) and constants (i.e. horizontal segments joining the sloped segments together). The first and last segments are both sloped. And the number of segments should be pre-selected between around 9-29 (that is 5-15 linear steps + 4-14 constant plateaus).
Formally
The input function:
The fitted piecewise function:
I am looking for the optimal resulting parameters (c,r,b) (in terms of least squares) if the segment numbers (n) are specified beforehand.
The resulting constants (c) and the breakpoints (r) should be whole natural numbers, and the slopes (b) round two decimal point values.
I have tried to do the fitting numerically using the pwlf package using a segmented constant models, and further processed the resulting constant model with some graphical intuition to "slice" the constant steps with the slopes. It works to some extent, but I am sure this is suboptimal from both fitting perspective and computational efficiency. It takes multiple minutes to generate a fitting with 8 slopes on the range of 1-50000. I am sure there must be a better way to do this.
My idea would be to instead using only numerical methods/ML, the fact that we have the algebraic form of the input function could be exploited in some way to at least to use algebraic transforms (integrals) to get to a simpler optimization problem.
import numpy as np
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
import pwlf
# The input function
def input_func(x,k,a):
return np.power(x,1/a)*k
x = np.arange(1,5e4)
y = input_func(x, 1.8, 1.3)
plt.plot(x,y);
def pw_fit(func, x_r, no_seg, *fparams):
# working on the specified range
x = np.arange(1,x_r)
y_input = func(x, *fparams)
my_pwlf = pwlf.PiecewiseLinFit(x, y_input, degree=0)
res = my_pwlf.fit(no_seg)
yHat = my_pwlf.predict(x)
# Function values at the breakpoints
y_isec = func(res, *fparams)
# Slope values at the breakpoints
slopes = np.round(y_isec / res, decimals=2)
slopes = slopes[1:]
# For the first slope value, I use the intersection of the first constant plateau and the input function
slopes = np.insert(slopes,0,np.round(y_input[np.argwhere(np.diff(np.sign(y_input - yHat))).flatten()[0]] / np.argwhere(np.diff(np.sign(y_input - yHat))).flatten()[0], decimals=2))
plateaus = np.unique(np.round(yHat))
# If due to rounding slope values (to two decimals), there is no change in a subsequent step, I just remove those segments
to_del = np.argwhere(np.diff(slopes) == 0).flatten()
slopes = np.delete(slopes,to_del + 1)
plateaus = np.delete(plateaus,to_del)
breakpoints = [np.ceil(plateaus[0]/slopes[0])]
for idx, j in enumerate(slopes[1:-1]):
breakpoints.append(np.floor(plateaus[idx]/j))
breakpoints.append(np.ceil(plateaus[idx+1]/j))
breakpoints.append(np.floor(plateaus[-1]/slopes[-1]))
return slopes, plateaus, breakpoints
slo, plat, breaks = pw_fit(input_func, 50000, 8, 1.8, 1.3)
# The piecewise function itself
def pw_calc(x, slopes, plateaus, breaks):
x = x.astype('float')
cond_list = [x < breaks[0]]
for idx, j in enumerate(breaks[:-1]):
cond_list.append((j <= x) & (x < breaks[idx+1]))
cond_list.append(breaks[-1] <= x)
func_list = [lambda x: x * slopes[0]]
for idx, j in enumerate(slopes[1:]):
func_list.append(plateaus[idx])
func_list.append(lambda x, j=j: x * j)
return np.piecewise(x, cond_list, func_list)
y_output = pw_calc(x, slo, plat, breaks)
plt.plot(x,y,y_output);
(Not important, but I think the fitted piecewise function is not continuous as it is. Intervals should be x<=r1; r1<x<=r2; ....)
As Anatolyg has pointed out, it looks to me that in the optimal solution (for the function posted at least, and probably for any where the derivative is different from zero), the horizantal segments will collapse to a point or the minimum segment length (in this case 1).
EDIT---------------------------------------------
The behavior above could only be valid if the slopes could have an intercept. If the intercepts are zero, as posted in the question, one consideration must be taken into account: Is the initial parabolic function defined in zero or nearby? Imagine the function y=0.001 *sqrt(x-1000), then the segments defined as b*x will have a slope close to zero and will be so similar to the constant segments that the best fit will be just the line that without intercept that fits better all the function.
Provided that the function is defined in zero or nearby, you can start by approximating the curve just by linear segments (with intercepts):
divide the function domain in N intervals(equal intervals or whose size is a function of the average curvature (or second derivative) of the function along the domain).
linear fit/regression in each intervals
for each interval, if a point (or bunch of points) in the extreme of any interval is better fitted by the line of the neighbor interval than the line of its interval, this point is assigned to the neighbor interval.
Repeat from 2) until no extreme points are moved.
Linear regressions might be optimized not to calculate all the covariance matrixes from scratch on each iteration, but just adding the contributions of the moved points to the previous covariance matrixes.
Then each linear segment (LSi) is replaced by a combination of a small constant segment at the beginning (Cbi), a linear segment without intercept (Si), and another constant segment at the end (Cei). This segments are easy to calculate as Si will contain the middle point of LSi, and Cbi and Cei will have respectively the begin and end values of the segment LSi. Then the intervals of each segment has to be calculated as an intersection between lines.
With this, the constant end segment will be collinear with the constant begin segment from the next interval so they will merge, resulting in a series of constant and linear segments interleaved.
But this would be a floating point start solution. Next, you will have to apply all the roundings which will mess up quite a lot all the segments as the conditions integer intervals and linear segments without slope can be very confronting. In fact, b,c,r are not totally independent. If ci and ri+1 are known, then bi+1 is already fixed
If nothing is broken so far, the final task will be to minimize the error/cost function (I assume that it will be the integral of the error between the parabolic function and the segments). My guess is that gradients here will be quite a pain, as if you change for example one ci, all the rest of the bj and cj will have to adapt as well due to the integer intervals restriction. However, if you can generalize the derivatives between parameters ( how much do I have to adapt bi+1 if ci changes a unit), you can propagate the change of one parameter to all other parameters and have kind of a gradient. Then for each interval, you can estimate what would be the ideal parameter and averaging all intervals calculate the best gradient step. Let me illustrate this:
Assuming first that r parameters are fixed, if I change c1 by one unit, b2 changes by 0.1, c2 changes by -0.2 and b3 changes by 0.2. This would be the gradient.
Then I estimate, comparing with the parabolic curve, that c1 should increase 0.5 (to reduce the cost by 10 points), b2 should increase 0.2 (to reduce the cost by 5 points), c2 should increase 0.2 (to reduce the cost by 6 points) and b3 should increase 0.1 (to reduce the cost by 9 points).
Finally, the gradient step would be (0.5/1·10 + 0.2/0.1·5 - 0.2/(-0.2)·6 + 0.1/0.2·9)/(10 + 5 + 6 + 9)~= 0.45. Thus, c1 would increase 0.45 units, b2 would increase 0.45·0.1, and so on.
When you add the r parameters to the pot, as integer intervals do not have an proper derivative, calculation is not straightforward. However, you can consider r parameters as floating points, calculate and apply the gradient step and then apply the roundings.
We can integrate the squared error function for linear and constant pieces and let SciPy optimize it. Python 3:
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
import numpy as np
import scipy.optimize
xl = 1
xh = 50000
a = 1.3
p = 1 / a
n = 8
def split_b_and_c(bc):
return bc[::2], bc[1::2]
def solve_for_r(b, c):
r = np.empty(2 * n)
r[0] = xl
r[1:-1:2] = c / b[:-1]
r[2::2] = c / b[1:]
r[-1] = xh
return r
def linear_residual_integral(b, x):
return (
(x ** (2 * p + 1)) / (2 * p + 1)
- 2 * b * x ** (p + 2) / (p + 2)
+ b ** 2 * x ** 3 / 3
)
def constant_residual_integral(c, x):
return x ** (2 * p + 1) / (2 * p + 1) - 2 * c * x ** (p + 1) / (p + 1) + c ** 2 * x
def squared_error(bc):
b, c = split_b_and_c(bc)
r = solve_for_r(b, c)
linear = np.sum(
linear_residual_integral(b, r[1::2]) - linear_residual_integral(b, r[::2])
)
constant = np.sum(
constant_residual_integral(c, r[2::2])
- constant_residual_integral(c, r[1:-1:2])
)
return linear + constant
def evaluate(x, b, c, r):
i = 0
while x > r[i + 1]:
i += 1
return b[i // 2] * x if i % 2 == 0 else c[i // 2]
def main():
bc0 = (xl + (xh - xl) * np.arange(1, 4 * n - 2, 2) / (4 * n - 2)) ** (
p - 1 + np.arange(2 * n - 1) % 2
)
bc = scipy.optimize.minimize(
squared_error, bc0, bounds=[(1e-06, None) for i in range(2 * n - 1)]
).x
b, c = split_b_and_c(bc)
r = solve_for_r(b, c)
X = np.linspace(xl, xh, 1000)
Y = [evaluate(x, b, c, r) for x in X]
plt.plot(X, X ** p)
plt.plot(X, Y)
plt.show()
if __name__ == "__main__":
main()
I have tried to come up with a new solution myself, based on the idea of #Amo Robb, where I have partitioned the domain, and curve fitted a dual - constant and linear - piece together (with the help of np.maximum). I have used the 1 / f(x)' as the function to designate the breakpoints, but I know this is arbitrary and does not provide a global optimum. Maybe there is some optimal function for these breakpoints. But this solution is OK for me, as it might be appropriate to have a better fit at the first segments, at the expense of the error for the later segments. (The task itself is actually a cost based retail margin calculation {supply price -> added margin}, as the retail POS software can only work with such piecewise margin function).
The answer from #David Eisenstat is correct optimal solution if the parameters are allowed to be floats. Unfortunately the POS software can not use floats. It is OK to round up c-s and r-s afterwards. But the b-s should be rounded to two decimals, as those are inputted as percents, and this constraint would ruin the optimal solution with long floats. I will try to further improve my solution with both Amo's and David's valuable input. Thank You for that!
import numpy as np
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
from scipy.optimize import curve_fit
# The input function f(x)
def input_func(x,k,a):
return np.power(x,1/a) * k
# 1 / f(x)'
def one_per_der(x,k,a):
return a / (k * np.power(x, 1/a-1))
# 1 / f(x)' inverted
def one_per_der_inv(x,k,a):
return np.power(a / (x*k), a / (1-a))
def segment_fit(start,end,y,first_val):
b, _ = curve_fit(lambda x,b: np.maximum(first_val, b*x), np.arange(start,end), y[start-1:end-1])
b = float(np.round(b, decimals=2))
bp = np.round(first_val / b)
last_val = np.round(b * end)
return b, bp, last_val
def pw_fit(end_range, no_seg, **fparams):
y_bps = np.linspace(one_per_der(1, **fparams), one_per_der(end_range,**fparams) , no_seg+1)[1:]
x_bps = np.round(one_per_der_inv(y_bps, **fparams))
y = input_func(x, **fparams)
slopes = [np.round(float(curve_fit(lambda x,b: x * b, np.arange(1,x_bps[0]), y[:int(x_bps[0])-1])[0]), decimals = 2)]
plats = [np.round(x_bps[0] * slopes[0])]
bps = []
for i, xbp in enumerate(x_bps[1:]):
b, bp, last_val = segment_fit(int(x_bps[i]+1), int(xbp), y, plats[i])
slopes.append(b); bps.append(bp); plats.append(last_val)
breaks = sorted(list(x_bps) + bps)[:-1]
# If due to rounding slope values (to two decimals), there is no change in a subsequent step, I just remove those segments
to_del = np.argwhere(np.diff(slopes) == 0).flatten()
breaks_to_del = np.concatenate((to_del * 2, to_del * 2 + 1))
slopes = np.delete(slopes,to_del + 1)
plats = np.delete(plats[:-1],to_del)
breaks = np.delete(breaks,breaks_to_del)
return slopes, plats, breaks
def pw_calc(x, slopes, plateaus, breaks):
x = x.astype('float')
cond_list = [x < breaks[0]]
for idx, j in enumerate(breaks[:-1]):
cond_list.append((j <= x) & (x < breaks[idx+1]))
cond_list.append(breaks[-1] <= x)
func_list = [lambda x: x * slopes[0]]
for idx, j in enumerate(slopes[1:]):
func_list.append(plateaus[idx])
func_list.append(lambda x, j=j: x * j)
return np.piecewise(x, cond_list, func_list)
fparams = {'k':1.8, 'a':1.2}
end_range = 5e4
no_steps = 10
x = np.arange(1, end_range)
y = input_func(x, **fparams)
slopes, plats, breaks = pw_fit(end_range, no_steps, **fparams)
y_output = pw_calc(x, slopes, plats, breaks)
plt.plot(x,y_output,y);
THIS PART IS JUST BACKGROUND IF YOU NEED IT
I am developing a numerical solver for the Second-Order Kuramoto Model. The functions I use to find the derivatives of theta and omega are given below.
# n-dimensional change in omega
def d_theta(omega):
return omega
# n-dimensional change in omega
def d_omega(K,A,P,alpha,mask,n):
def layer1(theta,omega):
T = theta[:,None] - theta
A[mask] = K[mask] * np.sin(T[mask])
return - alpha*omega + P - A.sum(1)
return layer1
These equations return vectors.
QUESTION 1
I know how to use odeint for two dimensions, (y,t). for my research I want to use a built-in Python function that works for higher dimensions.
QUESTION 2
I do not necessarily want to stop after a predetermined amount of time. I have other stopping conditions in the code below that will indicate whether the system of equations converges to the steady state. How do I incorporate these into a built-in Python solver?
WHAT I CURRENTLY HAVE
This is the code I am currently using to solve the system. I just implemented RK4 with constant time stepping in a loop.
# This function randomly samples initial values in the domain and returns whether the solution converged
# Inputs:
# f change in theta (d_theta)
# g change in omega (d_omega)
# tol when step size is lower than tolerance, the solution is said to converge
# h size of the time step
# max_iter maximum number of steps Runge-Kutta will perform before giving up
# max_laps maximum number of laps the solution can do before giving up
# fixed_t vector of fixed points of theta
# fixed_o vector of fixed points of omega
# n number of dimensions
# theta initial theta vector
# omega initial omega vector
# Outputs:
# converges true if it nodes restabilizes, false otherwise
def kuramoto_rk4_wss(f,g,tol_ss,tol_step,h,max_iter,max_laps,fixed_o,fixed_t,n):
def layer1(theta,omega):
lap = np.zeros(n, dtype = int)
converges = False
i = 0
tau = 2 * np.pi
while(i < max_iter): # perform RK4 with constant time step
p_omega = omega
p_theta = theta
T1 = h*f(omega)
O1 = h*g(theta,omega)
T2 = h*f(omega + O1/2)
O2 = h*g(theta + T1/2,omega + O1/2)
T3 = h*f(omega + O2/2)
O3 = h*g(theta + T2/2,omega + O2/2)
T4 = h*f(omega + O3)
O4 = h*g(theta + T3,omega + O3)
theta = theta + (T1 + 2*T2 + 2*T3 + T4)/6 # take theta time step
mask2 = np.array(np.where(np.logical_or(theta > tau, theta < 0))) # find which nodes left [0, 2pi]
lap[mask2] = lap[mask2] + 1 # increment the mask
theta[mask2] = np.mod(theta[mask2], tau) # take the modulus
omega = omega + (O1 + 2*O2 + 2*O3 + O4)/6
if(max_laps in lap): # if any generator rotates this many times it probably won't converge
break
elif(np.any(omega > 12)): # if any of the generators is rotating this fast, it probably won't converge
break
elif(np.linalg.norm(omega) < tol_ss and # assert the nodes are sufficiently close to the equilibrium
np.linalg.norm(omega - p_omega) < tol_step and # assert change in omega is small
np.linalg.norm(theta - p_theta) < tol_step): # assert change in theta is small
converges = True
break
i = i + 1
return converges
return layer1
Thanks for your help!
You can wrap your existing functions into a function accepted by odeint (option tfirst=True) and solve_ivp as
def odesys(t,u):
theta,omega = u[:n],u[n:]; # or = u.reshape(2,-1);
return [ *f(omega), *g(theta,omega) ]; # or np.concatenate([f(omega), g(theta,omega)])
u0 = [*theta0, *omega0]
t = linspan(t0, tf, timesteps+1);
u = odeint(odesys, u0, t, tfirst=True);
#or
res = solve_ivp(odesys, [t0,tf], u0, t_eval=t)
The scipy methods pass numpy arrays and convert the return value into same, so that you do not have to care in the ODE function. The variant in comments is using explicit numpy functions.
While solve_ivp does have event handling, using it for a systematic collection of events is rather cumbersome. It would be easier to advance some fixed step, do the normalization and termination detection, and then repeat this.
If you want to later increase efficiency somewhat, use directly the stepper classes behind solve_ivp.
could somebody please explain how to do a gradient descent problem WITHOUT the context of the cost function? I have seen countless tutorials that explain gradient descent using the cost function, but I really don't understand how it works in a more general sense.
I am given a 3D function:
z = 3*((1-xx)2) * np.exp(-(xx2) - (yy+1)2) \
- 10*(xx/5 - xx3 - yy5) * np.exp(-xx2 - yy2)- (1/3)* np.exp(-(xx+1)**2 - yy2)
And I am asked to:
Code a simple gradient algorithm. Set the parameters as follows:
learning rate = step size: 0.1
Max number of iterations: 20
Stopping criterion: 0.0001 (Your iterations should stop when your gradient is smaller than the threshold)
Then start your algorithm at
(x0 = 0.5, y0 = -0.5)
(x0 = -0.3, y0 = -0.3)
I have seen this piece of code floating around wherever gradient descent is talked about:
def update_weights(m, b, X, Y, learning_rate):
m_deriv = 0
b_deriv = 0
N = len(X)
for i in range(N):
# Calculate partial derivatives
# -2x(y - (mx + b))
m_deriv += -2*X[i] * (Y[i] - (m*X[i] + b))
# -2(y - (mx + b))
b_deriv += -2*(Y[i] - (m*X[i] + b))
# We subtract because the derivatives point in direction of steepest ascent
m -= (m_deriv / float(N)) * learning_rate
b -= (b_deriv / float(N)) * learning_rate
return m, b
enter code here
But I don't understand how to use it for my problem. How does my function fit in there? What do I adjust instead of m and b? I'm very very confused.
Thank you.
Gradient Descent is optimization algorithm for finding the minimum of a function.
Very simplified view
Lets start with a 1D function y = f(x)
Lets start at an arbitrary value of x and find the gradient (slope) of f(x).
If the slope is decreasing at x then it means we have to go further toward (right of number line) x (for reaching the minimum)
If the slope is increasing at x then it means we have to go away from (left of number line) x
We can get the slope by taking the derivative of the function. The derivative is -ve if the slop is decreasing and +ve if the slope is increasing
So we can start at some arbitrary value of x and slowly move toward the minimum using the derivatives at that value of x. How slowly we are moving is determined by the learning rate or step size. so we have the update rule
x = x - df_dx*lr
We can see that if the slope is decreasing the derivative (df_dx) is -ve and x is increasing and so x is moving to further right. On the other hand if slope is increasing the df_dx is +ve which decreases x and so we are moving toward left.
We continue this either for some large number of times or until the derivative is very small
Multivariate function z = f(x,y)
The same logic as above applies except now we take the partial derivatives instead of derivative.
Update rule is
x = x - dpf_dx*lr
y = y - dpf_dy*lr
Where dpf_dx is the partial derivative of f with respect to x
The above algorithm is called the gradient decent algorithm. In Machine learning the f(x,y) is a cost/loss function whose minimum we are interested in.
Example
import numpy as np
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
from mpl_toolkits.mplot3d.axes3d import Axes3D
from pylab import meshgrid
from scipy.optimize import fmin
import math
def z_func(a):
x, y = a
return ((x-1)**2+(y-2)**2)
x = np.arange(-3.0,3.0,0.1)
y = np.arange(-3.0,3.0,0.1)
X,Y = meshgrid(x, y) # grid of point
Z = z_func((X, Y)) # evaluation of the function on the grid
fig = plt.figure()
ax = fig.gca(projection='3d')
surf = ax.plot_surface(X, Y, Z, rstride=1, cstride=1,linewidth=0, antialiased=False)
plt.show()
The min of z_func is at (1,2). This can be verified using the fmin function of scipy
fmin(z_func,np.array([10,10]))
Now lets write our own gradient decent algorithm to find the min of z_func
def gradient_decent(x,y,lr):
while True:
d_x = 2*(x-1)
d_y = 2*(y-2)
x -= d_x*lr
y -= d_y*lr
if d_x < 0.0001 and d_y < 0.0001:
break
return x,y
print (gradient_decent(10,10,0.1)
We are starting at some arbitrary value x=10 and y=10 and a learning rate of 0.1. The above code prints 1.000033672997724 2.0000299315535326 which is correct.
So if you have a continuous differentiable convex function, to find its optimal (which is minimal for a convex) all you have to do is find the partial derivatives of the function with respect to each variable and use the update rule mentioned above. Repeat the steps until the gradients are small which mean we have reached the minima for a convex function.
If the function is not convex, we might get stuck in a local optima.
I want to use Hawkes process to model some data. I could not find whether PyMC supports Hawkes process. More specifically I want an observed variable with Hawkes Process and learn a posterior on its params.
If it is not there, then could I define it in PyMC in some way e.g. #deterministic etc.??
It's been quite a long time since your question, but I've worked it out on PyMC today so I'd thought I'd share the gist of my implementation for the other people who might get across the same problem. We're going to infer the parameters λ and α of a Hawkes process. I'm not going to cover the temporal scale parameter β, I'll leave that as an exercise for the readers.
First let's generate some data :
def hawkes_intensity(mu, alpha, points, t):
p = np.array(points)
p = p[p <= t]
p = np.exp(p - t)
return mu + alpha * np.sum(p)
def simulate_hawkes(mu, alpha, window):
t = 0
points = []
lambdas = []
while t < window:
m = hawkes_intensity(mu, alpha, points, t)
s = np.random.exponential(scale=1/m)
ratio = hawkes_intensity(mu, alpha, points, t + s)
t = t + s
if t < window:
points.append(t)
lambdas.append(ratio)
else:
break
points = np.sort(np.array(points, dtype=np.float32))
lambdas = np.array(lambdas, dtype=np.float32)
return points, lambdas
# parameters
window = 1000
mu = 8
alpha = 0.25
points, lambdas = simulate_hawkes(mu, alpha, window)
num_points = len(points)
We just generated some temporal points using some functions that I adapted from there : https://nbviewer.jupyter.org/github/MatthewDaws/PointProcesses/blob/master/Temporal%20points%20processes.ipynb
Now, the trick is to create a matrix of size (num_points, num_points) that contains the temporal distance of the ith point from all the other points. So the (i, j) point of the matrix is the temporal interval separating the ith point to the jth. This matrix will be used to compute the sum of the exponentials of the Hawkes process, ie. the self-exciting part. The way to create this matrix as well as the sum of the exponentials is a bit tricky. I'd recommend to check every line yourself so you can see what they do.
tile = np.tile(points, num_points).reshape(num_points, num_points)
tile = np.clip(points[:, None] - tile, 0, np.inf)
tile = np.tril(np.exp(-tile), k=-1)
Σ = np.sum(tile, axis=1)[:-1] # this is our self-exciting sum term
We have points and we have a matrix containg the sum of the excitations term.
The duration between two consecutive events of a Hawkes process follow an exponential distribution of parameter λ = λ0 + ∑ excitation. This is what we are going to model, but first we have to compute the duration between two consecutive points of our generated data.
interval = points[1:] - points[:-1]
We're now ready for inference:
with pm.Model() as model:
λ = pm.Exponential("λ", 1)
α = pm.Uniform("α", 0, 1)
lam = pm.Deterministic("lam", λ + α * Σ)
interarrival = pm.Exponential(
"interarrival", lam, observed=interval)
trace = pm.sample(2000, tune=4000)
pm.plot_posterior(trace, var_names=["λ", "α"])
plt.show()
print(np.mean(trace["λ"]))
print(np.mean(trace["α"]))
7.829
0.284
Note: the tile matrix can become quite large if you have many data points.